Pay Off Debt or Invest in 2026? The Break-Even Framework — With Real Rate Data
The break-even framework for debt vs. investing: if your debt interest rate exceeds your expected after-tax investment return, pay off the debt first. In 2026, that makes credit cards (19.58% APR) and many personal loans (12.26%) clear priorities for payoff. But mortgages at 6.22% and student loans at 6–8% fall below the S&P 500's ~10% historical return — suggesting investing can win there. We model five-year outcomes for $500/month across four debt types using verified March 2026 rate data.