US Finance
US Recession Risk 2026: Goldman Sachs at 30%, JPMorgan at 35% — What It Means for Your Portfolio
Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month US recession probability to 30% (from 25%) on March 30, 2026. JPMorgan sits at 35%. The S&P 500 is down approximately 7% year-to-date as of early April 2026, oil has climbed to $111.54/barrel on Iran-related geopolitical tensions, core inflation was lifted 70+ basis points by tariffs, and the Fed projects only one rate cut for 2026. We break down the exact probability data, what each scenario means for a diversified portfolio, and the concrete steps to take — without panic-selling.